Sunday 5 October 2014

The 5% Rule


When I first considered seriously writing a novel, many years ago, someone in publishing told me an axiom of the industry she called the 5% Rule. I have no evidence to prove how factual it is, but it's certainly believable and if taken as a parable on how difficult it is to become a successful writer, rather than as evidence itself, then it does ring true.

With a lot of paraphrasing, the rule follows that:
  • If there are many thousands of people who think they could/should/will write a book, only 5% of them will actually sit down and begin to do so.
  • Of those who start, only 5% will complete the book.
  • Of those that complete it, only 5% will finish it to a good standard and try to find a publisher/agent.
  • Of those that try to find an agent/publisher, only 5% will do so.
  • Of those that do find one, only 5% will make any money at all from their book.
  • Of those that do make money, only 5% will make enough money to consider writing their full time job.
  • Of those, only 5% will make "lots" of money
  • Somewhere in that last group is JK Rowling
Really all it says is, "This writing lark is pretty difficult to get into", but for some reason it stuck with me for the past 15 years.

Of course back then the rule was alluding to the traditional publishing industry. In 1999 there wasn't really an Indie Publishing industry as we know it today.

So does the essence of the rule still fit given the changes of the past 5 years? Well, yes and no. The first 3 parts remain relevant. Of those that think they will write a book, only a tiny fraction will get to the stage where they have a completed manuscript that has been re-written and edited to the point they feel comfortable showing it to people. Based on the sheer numbers, no matter how theoretical they are, if you finish a book it's a great achievement no matter what happens afterwards.

But what about the rest of the rule? Isn't it rendered obsolete by the self-publishing boom? Only partially. The rule still stands for those who are only focussed on traditional publishing. Self-Publishing hasn't made it any easier to find and agent or publisher and getting your book on the shelves. The vagaries, trends and coincidences that ruled traditional publishing from the writer's point of view, still do so.

And whilst self-published writers are now far beyond 5% of people who complete their manuscript, the rule kicks back in for the last few bullet points meaning just as few self-published authors make an income or career from writing as those in traditional industry.

In the years to come the line between the traditional and indie publishing industries will blur and merge, just as the traditional music industry recovered from, learnt from and eventually became part of the on-line downloading boom of the early 2000s.

What this means for writers is still unknown, but it will continue to be easier than ever before to publish your work. But, that 5% Rule, the analogy of successful author, will always be there no matter what happens to the industry as a whole.  The more things change, the more things stay the same.

But then, I've always supported the underdog. Haven't you?

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